Sunday, December 7, 2008

About Strategy - Cuba Libre

Is big still beautiful? GM, Chrysler and Ford... Citigroup? Are these the leaders of tomorrow or the laggers of today waiting for a change? There was a time, during or just before the previous dot.com crisis, that small was even more beautiful. Until small became big too. Wasn't it the ideology of the new-economy that the small David could attack Goliath easily and cause serious damage?

In automotive marketing terms: is a SUV still beautiful? But this is another topic. Neither is the size of a company the issue, but whether a small country can make a difference and whether it should be seen as strategic important.

Whether David will win doesn't matter, important is the influence of the Davids in a global scene.

In this context we should wonder about the small tiny island near the coast of Northern and Southern America? Near the US. What about Cuba? Does it at all matter? Is it too small to cause any issue?

During the present turbulence that takes more than expected, and after Fidel became ill, the change in Cuba was left unnoticed. At least the opportunity of this change was picked up by neither Russia, nor the U.S. The latter was "in principle" not interested, the former was too busy with local changes.

But China's moves seem quite intelligent. It quadrupled its trade with Cuba over the last years. Now it has signed more trade agreements and the rest of this strategic move can be imagined easily.

The word strategy has military roots. Napoleon was a master in strategy because he realized the importance of strategic locations.

In the current turbulence, there is little space for strategic thinking in the west, due to all kind of trouble. Yet in the Far East, the leaders calmly observe what is going on and silently prepare for the next strategic move.

The last significant strategic move was the war on terror. History will tell the real impact of that move. For the moment we better think about some new ones, for the world is changing as we talk.

H.J.B.

© 2008 Hans Bool

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